Trend sources

Startups as trend sources

Startups were among the first to adopt a new mindset in the face of these changes. Instead of relying on traditional business plans, they began operating with business model hypotheses to be validated or invalidated quickly. The complementarity of the team trying to prove that hypothesis became more important than a business plan.

The third wave of disruption was the one that hit business models. Startup leaders, sometimes called “barbarians”, deliberately targeted markets held by large companies that had been established for a long time. Their difference lay in offering services that were more agile, simpler to buy, easier to use, and wrapped in a friendlier customer relationship. Large companies often let them get on with it, because they underestimated the threat these newcomers represented.

These companies, such as Paypal, Amazon, Uber, Airbnb, Blablacar or Criteo, worked their way into the value chain of large companies and eventually redirected it to their own advantage. They arrived with a new mindset, and their products or services were rarely more powerful than what already existed. Leaders therefore need to understand emerging trends and adopt a flexible, agile mindset to stay competitive in a constantly changing environment.

Here are the seven trend identification sources I use during my sessions

Cross-pollination

This means observing trends in economic sectors far removed from your own that are going through a disruption. Dyson, for example, a company known for its vacuum cleaners, decided to move into the electric car market. By observing trends in sectors different from your own, you can identify opportunities for growth and innovation. It can also help you anticipate changes in your own sector.

Liberations

This means observing the inventions or startups that free us from a limitation, a financial burden or a fear. The MP3, for example, freed consumers from the limitation of carrying CDs around to listen to music. Airbnb freed travellers from the financial burden of expensive hotels. 23andme freed people from the fear of the unknown by letting them learn about their own genetics. By observing these liberations, you can identify trends that could affect your sector.

Exponentials

This means observing the technologies, the companies or the product adoption curves that turn exponential. The adoption of solar panels, for example, has grown exponentially over recent years. By observing these exponential trends, you can identify opportunities for growth and innovation in your sector.

Contradictions

This means observing two things that happen at the same time and appear to contradict each other. One example is the fall in printed book sales while the number of readers keeps rising. By observing these contradictions, you can identify trends that could affect your sector.

Inversions

This means observing something that was true and suddenly becomes false. It was once true that young people were the main users of Facebook, and that changed as older people took up social media in growing numbers. By observing these inversions, you can identify trends that could affect your sector.

Coincidences

This means observing independent events on the same subject that occur within a very short space of time. One example is the DARPA Challenge for autonomous vehicles and a 118 car pile-up on a motorway, a few days and a few kilometres apart. By observing these coincidences, you can identify trends that could affect your sector.

Oddities

This means observing events that appear to make no sense at all. Nike, for example, laid off the developers of its running app at the very moment when the Quantified Self movement (self-tracking) was becoming a major trend across the market. By observing these oddities, you can identify trends that could affect your sector.

Using trend sources

Innovation and product development

Companies can use trend sources to identify the changing needs and preferences of consumers, and to develop innovative products or services that meet those needs. Emerging trends can also inspire new ideas and solutions that resolve existing problems or anticipate future ones.

Company strategy and planning

Trend sources can be used to build strategies suited to market shifts. Companies can adjust their business models, their marketing plans, their operations and their investments according to the trends they identify. Trends can also be used to anticipate threats and opportunities, and to build action plans that capture the opportunities and reduce the risks.

Competitive intelligence and market analysis

Trend sources can be used to monitor competitor activity, identify threats and opportunities, and adjust company strategy accordingly. Trends can also be used to analyse the company’s target market, understand consumer needs and preferences, and identify the most promising market segments.

Forecasting and risk analysis

Trend sources make it possible to forecast future trends and their potential impact on the company, the sector or the market. Companies can use these forecasts to anticipate risks and take steps to reduce them. Trends can also be used to identify the risk factors and uncertainties that could affect company performance.

Training and skills development

Trend sources can be used to identify the skills and knowledge that will be in demand in the future. Companies can use this information to train and develop their employees, and to recruit talent with the skills needed to succeed in a constantly changing environment.